While the country's unemployment rate is falling, the quality of employment seems to have taken a hit. The pace of formalisation slowed in the five months of the current financial year (April-August) with more than half a million fewer formal jobs created in the period compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). The payroll data showed that cumulatively 4.92 million new subscribers joined the social security organisation between April-August this year, compared to 5.51 million subscribers in the same period in the previous year, reflecting a 10.7 per cent decline in the number of new payrolls created.
Extreme poverty in India declined by 38 million in 2021 to 167.49 million after a surge in the two preceding years, but remained above the 2018 level, the latest World Bank data shows. While for most countries poverty rose in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit the global economy, the data shows poverty shot up in India a year earlier in 2019 to 176.09 million from 151.79 million in 2018, the lowest pre-pandemic count. India's poverty rate at 11.9 per cent in 2021 also remained higher than the 2018 level of 11.09 per cent, though easing from 14.72 per cent in 2020.
The quality of employment has deteriorated in 12 of the 21 major states and Union Territories, as the proportion of workers in regular or salaried jobs declined between July 2022 and June 2023 compared to the previous year, according to a Business Standard analysis of the latest Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the National Statistical Office. Assam experienced the most significant decline in the share of workers in salaried work, dropping by 8.7 percentage points to 10.8 per cent in the July 2002-June 2023 period from 19.5 per cent in the July 2021-June 2022 period. This was followed by Delhi (6.2 percentage points), Uttarakhand (5.2 percentage points), and Chhattisgarh (1.6 percentage points).
India's unemployment rate fell to a six-year low of 3.2 per cent in the July-June 2022-23 period, down from 4.1 per cent in the same period the previous year, according to the latest annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) report. The report, released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday, showed a decline in unemployment rates in both rural and urban areas during the 2022-23 period to 2.4 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, from 3.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent in the 2021-22 period. The unemployment rate for rural women (1.8 per cent) was lower than that for rural men (2.7 per cent) in 2022-23; in urban areas, the rate was higher for females (7.5 per cent) compared to males (4.7 per cent).
Youth unemployment (ages 15 to 29) is higher than the national average of 12.4 per cent in Telangana (14.2 per cent) and Rajasthan (13 per cent), followed by Chhattisgarh (6.7 per cent) and MP (6 per cent).
'The assessment of most people is that there is a stable economic and political environment in India and that is attractive to investors.'
'To get a 100 per cent consensus document without any reservation, any bracket, any chair summary is unprecedented in the history of multilateral forums.'
'I'm pitching India for the strengths we offer, including the English language, engineers, doctors, nurses, professionals, innovative talent of startups.'
'The pace of disbursement and project recommendation picks up as the tenure of the House draws near and usually all amount is released.'
Employment in India saw a V-shaped recovery after being adversely impacted between April and June 2020 during the Covid lockdown and during April-June 2021, when the second wave struck, said Krishnamurthy V Subramanian, former chief economic advisor, in a paper released on Friday. Subramanian is now serving as executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). From the official survey data of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the paper titled 'Employment in India: Data Sources, Facts, and Trends' showed that both worker-population ratio (WPR) and labour force participation rate (LFPR) were higher, while the unemployment rate was lower during October-December 2022 when compared to the corresponding quarter in 2019.
After topping it for two consecutive years, Gujarat slipped three places on the NITI Aayog's Export Preparedness Index (EPI) for 2022, as Tamil Nadu emerged as the most export-ready state, the central think tank said in its report released on Monday. In a continuing trend, coastal states were found to have the most robust export infrastructure, which officials attributed to the integration of maritime trade into the core of their economies. Maharashtra and Karnataka retained their positions -- second and third, respectively; Haryana was ranked first among landlocked states and fifth overall.
The size of India's middle class will nearly double to 61 per cent of its total population by 2047, from 31 per cent in 2020-21, as continuing political stability and economic reforms with a sustained annual growth rate of between 6 per cent and 7 per cent over the next two and half decades will make the country one of the largest markets in the world. The findings are part of a report released on Wednesday by the People Research on India's Consumer Economy (PRICE) and India's Citizen Environment, a not-for-profit think tank. The report titled, The Rise of India's Middle Class, is based on an analysis of primary data collected by PRICE through its pan-Indian survey.
India, along with Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, is expected to sustain growth in the medium-term in Asia region, replacing China as the key growth driver, Morgan Stanley and Nomura said in two separate reports released on Monday. While Morgan Stanley projected a 6.2 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for India in FY24, Nomura estimated the Indian economy to grow at 5.9 per cent in 2023. "Even with a slowing China, we expect GDP growth in Asia to sustainably outperform other emerging markets and the US. India and Southeast Asia are set to be the fastest-growing economies this decade.
India's urban unemployment rate declined in Q4FY23 to 6.8 per cent - the lowest in over four years -- after it stagnated at 7.2 per cent in the previous October-December quarter, reflecting improvement in the labour market, according to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Monday. The unemployment rate in current weekly status (CWS) terms for all ages in the March quarter was the lowest recorded in more than four years, from the time the NSO released India's first quarterly urban jobless rate for the December quarter in 2018. The jobless rate in urban areas had been on a continuous decline since the peak of 20.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of FY21.
The share of women workers in registered factories submitting annual returns - working more than the statutorily-mandated maximum limit of 48 hours in a week - increased to a 11-year high of 33.6 per cent in 2019, shows the latest annual data released by the labour bureau. In comparison, only 27.9 per cent male workers worked more than the statutorily-mandated hours. Earlier in 2008, 39.2 per cent women workers had worked more than the prescribed work time.
'For our traditional membership base, it would be an access to disruptive ideas,' FICCI President Subhrakant Panda tells Asit Mishra/Business Standard.
The churn in Indian labour markets will be led by technology-driven sectors like artificial intelligence and machine learning (38 per cent), followed by data analysts and scientists (33 per cent) and data entry clerks (32 per cent).
Only one in four workers in Karnataka receive a salary, the lowest among the four industrialised states of India, a Business Standard analysis of the latest annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data shows. While 31.6 per cent workers in Gujarat receive regular wages (or salaries), followed by Tamil Nadu (30.3 per cent) and Maharashtra (29.4 per cent), only 25.7 per cent workers in Karnataka receive the same. The figure stands at 21.5 per cent at the national level, according to the 2021-22 PLFS data.
India's overall imports from Taiwan during April-February rose by 34 per cent to $7.5 billion.
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